Making predictions is fools play. Chances are someone will pull them up a year from now and laugh in my face so I tried to find those monkeys. You know, the ones who always beat the experts at stock market picks? Well anyway, they were not available so, just for the heck of it, I’ll give it a shot.
Predictions are based on historical data and trends + experience + known future facts + lots of luck. The other day, I already posted my predictions for the provincial market and why I think we’ll see a continued healthy market in 2008. Locally, we have many new housing starts anticipated in most of our market areas, we have some plant closures and job losses to absorb and, we have a continued demographic of boomers and retirees migrating into the area in large numbers. I’ve looked at both price changes, absorption rates and sales-to-listing ratios on a semi-annual basis from 2001 to the end of 2007. Then I put these all into my head, twirled around three times and threw darts at a 2008 projections board and here is what I came up with:
I think the number of unit sales in our primary trading area in 2008 will remain fairly constant with last years numbers with two exceptions. Meaford and Wasaga Beach have the most momentum going into the new year and they may see an increase in unit sales of as much as 20% or more.
Price Changes (2007 – 2008)
Wasaga Beach: 7%
Blue Mountains: 5%
Time will tell, right? Let the year begin!