It’s hard to pick up a paper these days without reading a great deal of doom and gloom about the Canadian economy. Plant closures, inflation, gas prices and real estate fill the pages and fear has finally hit the consumer.
There is a great deal of discussion about the “crash” in the real estate market but, is it true? I myself had one of my best months in May and have been so busy I’ve hardly had time to check on the statistics until now. So what is going on?
Statistics are easily manipulated and interpreted to suit the intent of the reader which really, is odd given that raw data is raw data. Let me show you what I mean.
According to the statistics collected from our MLS® system by the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board, sales for the month of May were down 21% compared to the same period last year. Scary, huh? But let’s look closer.
21% actually represented only 49 sales, in a huge area covering from Meaford to Wasaga Beach and everything in between. Year-to-date, sales are down just 4%. The total dollar value of the sales is on par with a year ago.
Then, I took a look at price bands. Sales of properties priced from $200,000 to $600,000 are actually up. Sales above and below this level are down except for those over one million dollars which are equal to last year. Hmm, not so bad.
Then I looked at residential sales only eliminating commercial properties and the picture was very different. Residentially, sales are down 2.3% year-to-date and the sales to listing ratio has dropped from 38% to 35%. A drop for sure but hardly earth-shattering given that 2007 was the second highest sales year on record. And prices?
The average sale price was $286,000 at the end of May compared to $278,000 last year.
The number of residential sales in Clearview, Wasaga Beach and Meaford were down in the first five months. These were previously the most active markets so itâ€™s not really a surprise. What about Collingwood and the Blue Mountains you ask? Sales levels were actually up. Be careful of those statistics and remember what they are being compared too an inflated sales boom.
So, don’t panic. Yes, I think the boom of hyper-inflating real estate prices has stopped but is that a bad thing? I don’t think so. Sellers will need to be more realistic in order to sell and buyers can take time to be more thoughtful. The market has not crashed and while we are indeed going to weather adjustments for some time to come, the future continues to be bright for South Georgian Bay.
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When it’s time to buy or sell real estate in the Collingwood, Blue Mountain or Georgian Triangle area, contact Marg, an experienced and competent Broker who is ready whenever you are!